Quite a busy week rebalancing my portfolio. I withdrew funds from my Trading212 account following a dispute from them. It is true, as you continue to compound your knowledge of the market, investing and trading, in general, you begin to demand more from the services you get from the platforms you use. I moved 50% of that to Interactive Brokers and the other half to my crypto account. I also received my salary yesterday and all of my SR were deposited straight to my Vanguard ISA account.
I did 3 trades last week - Long ALB +5%, Short ALB +3%, Long TIGR +2% (intraday, wrong exit, accidentally used Limit instead of Trail Limit, could have secured 5% on this trade). I could not execute trades yesterday (Friday) as I got stuck at work until 9PM. Been having a hard time fishing on my scanners as well, I used to capture 15-20 names, but on this type of market, 4-5 is a miracle. I am not changing my scanning rules. I would rather sit in cash than force trades I don't normally execute.
The market is still on an uptrend but the breakouts on momentum stocks do not sustain and retraced back to the breakout point mostly.
Bitcoin has been underperforming since it broke 60K, coincidentally, right after $COIN IPO. Is this the top in this cycle? Nevertheless, I have been buying ETH, LINK and DOT on this pullback and wishes that these coins drop back to 100/200MA where my Limit Orders are. I also learned Liquidity/Market Making in Crypto and has added more on my Binance Earn. I will be publishing my weekly crypto earnings on Publish0x and LeoFinance. I am still unsure if I have to add that crypto kind of content on this blog. Maybe add a page for it? Not sure. But I really want to share the potential of generating alpha in the crypto universe to the FIRE community - boom or bust. As far as the UK FIRE bloggers are concerned, it is only Early Retirement In UK who is actively participating in Crypto but I couldn't find an email to contact the author to ask for their strategy. Another 7 bloggers own Bitcoin and or Ethereum.
Sector: Technology > Computer Hardware
Ideas: Bitcoin play; flat with little attention from investors/traders since BTC broke its ATH, Broke downtrend on MACD bullish signal on another BTC break. Nothing fancy about the BTC plays when BTC ripped, the miners were dumping shares via offering but the demand was too much, bulls won.
Retro Entry: Aggressive entry was the MACD bull signal, another entry was the resistance breakout. I was looking into this ticker but did not buy it as I was considering its float and concluded I would be better trading other crypto play tickers. I guess, the market doesn't care much about the float when the trend is moving at a bullet train speed. Also marked in yellow circle is the set up I have been studying - multiple MAs convergence, MACD Bull signal, tight flag, increasing volume. For now, I am dependent on the MACD bull crossover on my scan, I don't know how to program a script to capture the set up using MAs and chart pattern yet.
NFTs are unstoppable, firstname.lastname@example.org
Saudi Arabia, UAE poised to launch digital currency
The Celsius Business Model Explained
Crypto Flash Crash Wiped Out $300 Billion In Less Than 24 Hours, Spurring Massive Bitcoin Liquidations
Biden's Stimulus Plan - Stock Market & Economic Impact, PensionCraft
E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more, All-In Podcast
Podcast #7 - The Broker, Traders4ACause
Markets Thursday 15042021 - Dupont Trading
How Oliver Kell Returned 941% in 2020 | Interview with Oliver Kell | The 2020 US Investing Champion, Rewatch
The Exponential Age: Crypto’s Fast and Furious Rise, Real Vision Finance
Interview with 2019 US Investing Champion Leif Soreide | Key Swing Trading Setups and Methods, Richard Moglen
Thorchain: Decentralized Liquidity Network, Real Vision Finance
QQQ +3.82% and is back to its trend-line support which means that XLK led the rally last week.
My Vanguard account hit an all-time-high last Friday - this is insane considering I DCA monthly. Also, reinvested Q1 dividends. I just realised that my yearly dividend could now pay for my yearly gym membership and NMC annual fee. I don't even care about these dividends but it's free money, so I'll take it.
Closed trades - BIDU (Breakeven) - tried to give this a room to bounce and fill the waterfall to 260 but failed on Friday. It's also the first time for me to see a red bar and a MACD bullish cross (lol). TWTR (+3%) - a really stupid fat finger mistake. I was trying to set up a break even stop to let this run but the limit stop I was trying to set did not update. Whatever. It happens.
New Trade: UBER (10MA rejection); convergence of MAs.
Bitcoin is really setting up to the upside - Higher Lows, Testing resistance, Contraction. SI is the strongest BTC play but no set up to my liking; miners made pullbacks last Friday. I hesitated on my RIOT entry and will re-evaluate. Coinbase will IPO next week.
Sector: Internet Software Services
Pinterest made an Episodic Pivot after Q2 2020 beats that came with a 39% Y/Y growth in global monthly active users to $416M, a growth fuelled by the pandemic. Accumulated for 6 weeks then BO'd on Sept 2. Gained almost 200% since Pivot. Note that this company is not yet profitable but released strong guidance for 2021.
Retro Entry: The EP was the best entry with stop at Low of the Day, took a while for this to work.
Or alert on BO was the best 2nd entry.
Bought this at the BO in Feb 2 and was one of my best trades as I start learning Qullamaggie's strategy.
📖 Downtime Reads
Actionable Steps to Building 7 Income Streams Like a Millionaire
The Containerization of the World - Sahil Bloom [Substack Newsletter]
[Blueprint] Create a Simple Trend Following System · Nick Radge
Dan Tapiero: Three Key Crypto Investment Categories (w/Dan Tapiero and Raoul Pal)
Inflation Indicators, Fiscal Policy Changes, The Economy | ITK with Cathie Wood
QCP Capital: A Breakdown Of Asia’s Crypto Markets
INX: The Benefits Of Digital Securities & Regulations
Biden's Stimulus Plan - Stock Market & Economic Impact
E28: Current state of public & private markets, Archegos debacle, US debt issues, wealth tax & more
"This is one of the most urgent problems for the civilised man. He has created civilisation to give himself security. Security for what? For boredom? His chief problem seems to be that most human beings need a certain amount of challenge, of external stimulus, to stop them from sinking in to the blank stare and blank consciousness of the idiot."
Finally, done with my Visa application, and senior post interview and assessment. I was too busy with these that I forgot to place orders on my scans i.e. SOXL relative strength. Anyway, I initiated a position on $PBF and $BIDU last Thursday following OPEC oil production cut news for the former and price action (high volume 200SMA bounce) of the latter.
S&P 500 ripped thru 4K this week despite weakness in February.
The market chatter for last week was the blow-up of Bill Hwang's Archegos Capital (here's the link to the story). The forced liquidation of Bill Hwang's position reminded me of Melvin Capital back in January.
Crypto is strong - ETH 2k (again), BTC 60K (again)- my polkadot hit +35%. Two blocks still staked at 12% APY. ATH for my crypto account.
Historically, April is the best month in terms of market return, so looking forward to fully utilise my trading capital.
Lastly, I will add sample historical charts on equities and look for Episodic Pivot (EP), Break-outs (BO) and Parabolic Short/Long set-ups. I am currently trying to force myself to learn these set-ups.
Sample Chart Study
About: Energy/Fitness Drinks
Chart: Gapped up 7 days before Q1 earnings report; gapped again (on volume) after earnings beat, gliding above 10DMA until Q2; Massive gap up (again) Q2 ff earnings beat; formed VCP with strong resistance (red arrows); Gapped on Q3 beat
Entry on Q1 gap up stop on LOH or 10DMA
Nov 3 Pocket Pivot or late stage VCP BO before Q2 announcement (due to risk - starter position only)
Dec 3 tight bullish flag BO
Quallamaggie (one of the best traders I follow) recommends that the first gap up on volume is critical esp. if the company beats earnings (EPS/revenue).
A Tiger Can’t Change Its Stripes
The Two Tiger Cubs at the Center of Friday’s $35 Billion Meltdown
Here’s Why So Many People Intend to Die With Money in the Bank
Piers Kicks: Earning Money in the Metaverse ft Piers Kicks
Crypto and the "Promiscuity" of Technology ft. Chris Tuohy and Raoul Pal
What Traditional Investors Think of Bitcoin with Raoul Pal
Interview with Hedge Fund Manager Jim Roppel | Stock Trading Fundamentals, Strategy, Crypto, CANSLIM
Lifestyle Creeps by 10KDiver
Get a cup of coffee.
In this thread, I'll help you understand Lifestyle Creep, and why it's important to minimize it to the extent possible.
This will help you answer the most important question in all of personal finance: should you get that daily latte or not?
As we get older, we tend to have more money.
At work, we become better skilled and more experienced at our jobs. So we get promotions and raises.
Also, our investment portfolios and 401(k)s become bigger -- as compounding starts to kick in.
So we feel richer.
Over time, this feeling of being richer leads us to consume more (ie, spend more money).
We buy bigger houses. We drive nicer cars. We treat ourselves more often to nice meals at fine restaurants.
As we splurge, we get accustomed to a more comfortable, more pampered, life.
And for most of us, this is a one-way street: it's hard to go back to our spartan ways of yesteryears.
Our new, more luxurious, lifestyle has slowly "crept up" on us.
This is Lifestyle Creep.
I made 2 overnight trades this week. $TIGR entry on 20DMA (+6%), was up (+15%) premarket but I refused to sell (greed much?) then it just collapsed from opening to end of trading day Thursday; and $AAL on Bullish Flag and overall JETS strength (+3%) Friday.
I staked 2 more lots on DOT at >12%APY and has been collecting interest on my first lot since 19 days ago. For me, crypto staking is a cheat code to earn passive income but it has risks i.e. the value of the asset itself can go to (technically) zero overnight. But, what's the average bank interest rate again? 0.5%, 0.75%? Hilarious!
SPY and DIA on record highs as Biden finally signed the 1.9T stimulus bill. BTC rips through 60K and briefly 61K for the first time. Will it have another '18 crash? Time will tell. I am bullish on BTC and its value proposition but I am not a BTC maximalist. Hence, I continue to explore the crypto universe and will add more assets moving forward. In fact as of today, crypto is now 5% of my portfolio, hitting my target and is the best performing asset at that. For me, I think it is a bigger risk having ZERO exposure in crypto.
Fascinatingly, I found this chart on Twitter.
Weekly Highlights 5 [QQQ continues to the downside, Oil & Gas rips, 1.9M trillion stimmy passed on Senate]
What an exciting week! I panicked a bit when I suddenly had an open position in eToro when I couldn't remember initiating one. Until it dawned on me that I had a limit buy on PENN on a trendline support. I managed to close this immediately at a gain, only to give it all back misreading dip buy on SKT.
In Twitterverse, the pumpers and momentum bulls are even quieter than previous weeks; on the contrary, the traders and bears take the center stage. I could care less about what is happening with the market, my trading account is still up 17% for the year. I am currently sitting on cash with the exception on my regular Index Fund buys and just recently, regular crypto adds.
For the week, Oil & Gas, and Financials are the leaders whilst Tech continues to be the laggard. Many names with stellar earnings report in the Tech sector were not spared e.g. PINS, ZM, APPS. I have scanned the best stocks holding on to this sell-off in the MOMO (Momentum) category with more or less triple digits revenue growth YOY and will only focus on those.
Why central banks want to get into digital currencies
Citi and Ruffer predict breakout moment for bitcoin
Google announces major shift away from precision-targeting of ads based on everything you do on the internet
Deliveroo chooses London for stock market listing in boosts for Britain and Rishi Sunak
Senate passes $1.9 trillion Covid relief bill, including $1,400 stimulus checks, with no Republican support
Volatility, Skepticism, Retail vs. Institutional Investors | ITK with Cathie Wood
Warren Buffett Market View 2021
What is Polkadot? | A Polkadot for Beginners Guide and Intro to Blockchain
I have been slacking off lately with my weekly posts. This is owing to the fact that I have been really pushing on my trading learning curve by spending most of my time watching videos from the pros, backtesting strategies and studying charts. Due to this, I will be changing my weekly highlights to focus more on market performance i.e. major indices and sectors, and anything market related to align my activities with my goals. I will still include podcasts and my usual weekly reads.
I am looking for a Trend Line undercut and a challenge on the 20D EMA. I have been kicked out on my trail stop losses in my trading accounts from this market pull-back and that's fine with me. Pretty much sitting on cash whilst looking for strong market performers resisting this sell-off.
Leaders and Laggers
Rotation to cyclicals was the theme for the last few weeks. Oil and Gas, and Energy are the strongest sectors but these are the industries I don't normally trade. I am okay to miss out on this. The worst asset performer is Bitcoin; and Nasdaq Composite as the over-extended Tech movers retreats.